Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.003122 0.003421 0.003740 0.004107 0.004516 0.004961 0.005482
2026-01-04 0.002635 0.003059 0.003543 0.004140 0.004860 0.005704 0.006777
2026-01-11 0.002308 0.002784 0.003352 0.004087 0.005020 0.006176 0.007735
2026-01-18 0.002080 0.002584 0.003210 0.004050 0.005164 0.006608 0.008654
2026-01-25 0.001894 0.002413 0.003076 0.003997 0.005262 0.006969 0.009497
2026-02-01 0.001766 0.002301 0.003003 0.004007 0.005434 0.007430 0.010510
2026-02-08 0.001636 0.002174 0.002896 0.003956 0.005507 0.007749 0.011341
2026-02-15 0.001516 0.002049 0.002780 0.003879 0.005529 0.007988 0.012064
2026-02-22 0.001441 0.001981 0.002736 0.003898 0.005692 0.008444 0.013170
2026-03-01 0.001397 0.001952 0.002746 0.003995 0.005976 0.009109 0.014687
2026-03-08 0.001314 0.001861 0.002657 0.003934 0.006004 0.009362 0.015526
2026-03-15 0.001235 0.001771 0.002563 0.003856 0.005996 0.009552 0.016268
2026-03-22 0.001168 0.001698 0.002493 0.003818 0.006061 0.009889 0.017356
2026-03-29 0.001121 0.001654 0.002467 0.003849 0.006247 0.010458 0.018966
2026-04-05 0.001062 0.001585 0.002396 0.003800 0.006289 0.010770 0.020110
2026-04-12 0.001010 0.001526 0.002337 0.003766 0.006353 0.011126 0.021386
2026-04-19 0.000960 0.001466 0.002273 0.003718 0.006384 0.011419 0.022568
2026-04-26 0.000925 0.001428 0.002243 0.003726 0.006520 0.011930 0.024292
2026-05-03 0.000882 0.001376 0.002185 0.003680 0.006547 0.012222 0.025561
2026-05-10 0.000838 0.001319 0.002116 0.003609 0.006520 0.012400 0.026591
2026-05-17 0.000813 0.001292 0.002096 0.003627 0.006669 0.012961 0.028620
2026-05-24 0.000800 0.001286 0.002114 0.003716 0.006968 0.013874 0.031667
2026-05-31 0.000765 0.001240 0.002058 0.003659 0.006963 0.014115 0.033028